8/12/03

Recall status. Vincent J. Schodolski of the Chicago Tribune reports that as of Monday at least 195 candidates were expected to be on the Oct. 7 California gubernatorial recall ballot, along with two referenda.

Despite only four questions being posed on the ballot, expectations of voter intelligence was low and predictions of the likelihood of confusion and result challenges high.
Each ballot will have two sections. The first will simply ask whether Democratic Gov. Gray Davis should be removed from office.

Regardless of how voters answer that question, they proceed to the second section of the ballot, where the names of the candidates will be listed.

Because of the number of candidates, officials said that if Davis is recalled, it could take days to determine who is the new governor.

The ballot will be large and contain numerous pages, something experts said was almost certain to cause confusion.

As was the case in Florida, some voters might think they have to vote for one name on each page, meaning they could invalidate their ballots by choosing more than one person to be governor...

...Adding further complexity to the election will be the presence of two referendum questions. One relates to state spending on infrastructure; the other is a controversial measure that would prohibit the state from gathering data related to the race and ethnicity of people.

That voters are not expected to comprehend a ballot posing four simple choices -- Yes/ No; Pick one; Yes/ No; Yes/No -- is astounding, really. Unless such fears are being exaggerated to pave the way for a legal challenge by the soon-to-be-toast Davis.

The main fear seems to be that the ballot would be too long for voters to manage. Many people successfully negotiate the LA phone book everyday, but maybe that's a different issue.

In any event, Davis's chances of surviving the recall certainly seem bleak, as Arnold Schwarzenegger emerges as the best known -- hence, the one most likely to win -- candidate.
In a survey released Monday by CNN, USA Today and Gallup, 72 percent of those asked said Schwarzenegger's candidacy should be taken seriously and 42 percent said there was a good chance they would vote for him. Fifty-two percent said the professional actor would do a better job running California than professional politicians.

Ominously for Davis, 64 percent of those asked said they would vote to recall Davis, while only 29 percent said they would vote to keep him in office.

What we have here is another Prop. 13/Dump Rose Bird election in which vengeful voters egged on by a biased press will turn out in droves to 1) punchcard a demonstrate politician/issue in the nose (so to speak) and 2) jam the point home by showing their utter contempt for the political process by voting for the most ridiculous alternative.

Believe me, if it should happen to get out that someone has put up $3,500 and 65 signatures to put his or her pet dog or favorite chimpanzee on the ballot, Arnie could very well lose...More...

Elsewhere, they're getting rid of elections altogether. Three states have canceled their primaries.
Because of a combination of tight budgets and partisan political maneuvering, at least three states, and probably more, will not hold presidential primaries next year. Legislators in recent months have canceled their states' primaries in Colorado, Kansas and Utah. Budget crunches were a big factor in all three states.

Colorado started the trend. On March 5, Republican Gov. Bill Owens signed a bill eliminating the 2004 primary, for a one-time savings of $2.2 million. The move was part of a major budget-cutting package that slashed $800 million from Colorado's 2002-2003 budget.

But in Colorado and elsewhere, there's also a partisan side to the drop-the-primary movement.

That's because President Bush is a shoo-in for renomination, while the Democrats have a vigorous contest with many viable candidates - nine, at the latest count. So Republican strategists figure that holding a 2004 primary will give lots of free publicity to the Democrats while their own nominating process generates close to zero excitement.

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